Mayer's Alternative to the I-B Model.

This article presents the author's comment on a paper by Thomas F. Mayer about a model of arms races and war initiation. Mayer uses our general framework but varies either the conditions for deterrence or attack or the nature of the model and finds in certain cases different conclusions with regard to the relationship between arms races and the initiation of war that in our model. The results of a theoretical model, of course, depend entirely on its assumptions, and a change in assumptions can change the results dramatically. Mayer's article is an exercise in such changes, some of which only slightly change our conclusions but others of which turn them on their head. Remarkably enough, although Mayer's article appears devoted to criticizing the conclusions of our model, his variations on our model, in fact, support the main point of our article as stated in our conclusions. All of Mayer's results, no matter what the assumptions, support this conclusion. Some of the results from Mayer's article is diametrically opposite to some, with the region of initiation replacing that of deterrence and conversely with the region of deterrence replacing that of initiation.