CARACTERIZACIÓN Y ANÁLISIS DE MODELOS DE EVALUACIÓN ECONÓMICA DE PROYECTOS DE INVERSION BAJO INCERTIDUMBRE.

This present paper introduces those methods that are currently available for project assessment. It emphasises the limitations of the traditional methods, such as the Discounted Cash Flow Method, when being used to evaluate highly uncertain projects, where decision makers have the flexibility enough to change the course of the project to meet those changes that had taken place at the market early stages. Those models that are able to provide a more level-headed assessment for this kind of project - where uncertainty and flexibility have become key factors in the decision making process - have been distinguished and compared. As a solution to this, the application of Real Option Analysis procedure has been suggested to valuate projects, since traditional tools are not enough by themselves. This theory arises from the evaluation of financial assets and is currently being used for the assessment of investment related projects, the same way as it can be used in the case of financial assets. Decision about using the real option analysis as the model to be applied was reached after carrying out an extensive bibliographical compilation regarding this real option analysis theory, in turn written by several researchers during the last few years. This methodology is subjected to comparative analysis with respect to those Discounted Cash Flow and Decision Tree Analysis based models. The evaluation of a given project - by applying the three project evaluation methods: Black-Scholes, Monte Carlo Simulation and Binomial Trees - is introduced. Finally, an analysis of the project evaluation outcomes under the different models being applied, is carried out. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]