Nuclear Tiger with Paper Teeth: Putting China's Stagnant Nuclear Deterrent in International and Domestic Context.

The trajectory of the Chinese nuclear program over the last decades of the twentieth century presents a puzzle that nuclear deterrence theory is ill-equipped to explain: Despite a strong commitment to a deterrent strategy and ample economic and technical abilities to build the necessary forces, China allowed its nuclear program to stagnate dangerously â€" perhaps beyond the point of second-strike survivability with respect to the major nuclear arsenals of the world. To explain the pattern of Chinese nuclear development, a richer understanding of the context â€" both domestic and international â€" is necessary, including improved (though still tense) superpower relationships, a shifted focus toward economic growth (for its own sake and as a source of power), and a reduced voice of military actors in policy-making. While not changing the fundamental implications of deterrence models, this context reduced the willingness of the Chinese leadership to make trade-offs when pursuit of nuclear modernization would have compromised objectives in other arenas. This paper suggests that deterrence theory must be broadened to incorporate a wider range of factors, both to reflect the decision-making process and to accurately predict outcomes. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]