Do environmental disasters benefit Green parties? Findings from a multilevel analysis.

Since the early 1980s green parties across Europe have made substantial electoral gains and have on occasions taken part in governmental coalitions. Throughout this period green parties have presented themselves as staunch defenders of the environment, although mainstream parties have recently disputed their ownership of this issue. This paper explores the possibility that these electoral successes might be linked to the occurrence of environmental disasters provoked by major oil spills and serious incidents at nuclear power plants. Our study focuses on the French Green Party. We carry out a multilevel analysis based on data for the 12 national elections that took place between 1981 and 2007 to determine the effects of environmental disasters on electoral results. We hypothesize that the effects of such disasters on voters are likely to be strongest within electoral districts that have been hurt by a disaster, or that share essential characteristics with regions hit by a disaster. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]