The Impact of a Free Trade Agreement on the U.S.-South Korean Alliance: A Theoretical and Empirical Assessment.

This paper critically evaluates the prevalent view that a free trade agreement (FTA) between Seoul and Washington would markedly strengthen their security alliance. For that purpose, we examine the impact of economic ties on U.S. alliances with Australia, Japan, Taiwan, the Philippines, as well as South Korea, over the past quarter-century, while drawing relevant insights from the theoretical literature on international commerce and alliance cohesion. The research finds that the conventional wisdom has questionable theoretical and empirical foundations. There are several logical reasons for rejecting the prevalent view. First, the FTA would not markedly increase mutual dependence between the U.S. and Korean economies. Second, expanding economic ties with potential adversaries such as North Korea and China may cancel out any marginal alliance-enhancing effect of the agreement. Third, the FTA could adversely affect the vested interests of influential societal actors, which might blame their economic losses on the alliance and turn against it. Fourth, the alliance could become more asymmetrical and further lose its public appeal. Also, the empirical analysis shows no clear positive association between the level of economic interdependence and the strength of alliances. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]