Was Sinn Fein Dying? A Quantitative Post-Mortem of the Party's Decline and the Emergence of Fianna Fail.

This article calls for a reappraisal of the consensus surrounding the split within Sinn Fein in 1926 that led to the foundation of Fianna Fail. It demonstrates that quantitative factors cited to show Sinn Fein's 'terminal' decline - finances, cumann (branch) numbers, and election results - and to explain de Valera's decision to leave Sinn Fein and establish a rival republican organisation, Fianna Fail, do not provide sufficient objective grounds to explain the republican leader's actions. The article demonstrates that Sinn Fein's election results during the period in question (1923-26) were encouraging and the decline in finances and cumann numbers can be explained by the fact that the base year used to compare progress was 1923, an election year. Moreover, the article compares the performance of Sinn Fein to the first five years of Fianna Fail (1926-31) to show that what has been interpreted as terminal decline can also be attributed to normal inter-election lulls in party activity. Correspondingly, subjective factors - e.g. personal rivalries, differences in ideology, organisational style and levels of patience in terms of achieving political power - were most likely the determining factors rather than organisational decline. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]