Modelling spread of foot-and-mouth disease in wild white-tailed deer and feral pig populations using a geographic-automata model and animal distributions

Abstract: We investigated how the size and distribution of wild deer and feral pigs – species that might act as potential foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) virus maintenance hosts – might affect the persistence and spread of FMD. We used a susceptible-latent-infected-recovered geographic-automata model and spatially referenced data from southern Texas, USA. Within this study area, 100 locations were randomly selected and FMD virus spread was simulated (50 simulations each) at each location. As expected, the predicted sizes (km2) of the wild deer outbreaks were highly correlated (r SP >0.95) with the number of deer at incursion locations, the total number of deer within 2km of incursion locations, and the minimum and maximum deer herd size within 2km of incursion locations. However, the predicted sizes of the feral pig outbreaks were only moderately correlated (r SP 0.63–0.67) with the total, maximum and variance of the number of feral pigs within 2km of incursion locations. Lack of continuity within the feral pig herd distribution across the landscape makes predicting disease spread more difficult than for deer, a more homogenously distributed species. When assessing the potential of wild and feral animal species at a locality to act as maintenance hosts of FMD virus, estimates of the population size and distribution might serve as a useful indicator of potential outbreaks in some circumstances. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]