When is Moderation and Democratization Sustainable? Lessons from Political Islam in Turkey.

The difficulties that the development of western democracy faces in societies with a predominantly Muslim culture form some of the major divisions in current international politics. In this context, the “moderation” of Political Islam and democratic consolidation in Turkey is an invaluable example. This paper evaluates the sustainability of the moderation of Turkish Political Islam, by presenting and discussing the findings of an empirical project. This project systematically content-analyzes the discourse of major Islamic-conservative newspapers and social and economic associations in Turkey, between 1996 and 2003. The premise is that in order to be sustainable, the moderation of Islamist political parties should be preceded or accompanied by changes in the values of the party’s constituency. The content analysis reveals to what extent constituency values changed, in which areas (such as social and political pluralism, the image of the West, etc.) and how. Historical event analysis is employed to identify how change was affected by domestic and external mechanisms. The resulting causal explanation is compared to interviewed political-economic actors’ perceptions. Finally, the paper will discuss what the findings imply for the emergence of a “twin tolerations” between Islamic and secularist actors and institutions, which is necessary for democratic consolidation. Muslim societies involve major secularist actors and institutions, which are as much a product of the Muslim world’s historical engagement of western modernity as Islamists are. Thus, for democratic consolidation it matters greatly that Islamic and secularist constituencies trust each other and produce a “twin tolerations.” ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]