Long-Term U.S. Foreign Policy and the 2008 Presidential Election: How Much Choice and How Much Necessity?

The 2008 presidential election campaign will be one of the longest and most expensive in American history. For the first time since 1952, neither major candidate will be an incumbent president or vice president. Foreign policy is a major issue as office holders of the two major parties have substantial differences about foreign policy toward areas of importance to the U.S. As in 1952, American patience has been worn thin by a war that has gone on past the time many expected it to end. The authors make use of the primary author’s long-term mood/interest research to suggest elements of choice and elements of necessity facing the American voters in years like 1952 and 2008. For example, the people can choose who best reflects their approach to Asia or the Middle East, but there are limits to American power. It is likely that by the time the paper is presented that the two major party candidates will be known and that there will be seven months remaining prior to the final decision. Thus there will, at least in theory, be time for the debate to be shaped to provide a meaningful choice.The attitudes of the American public are believed to be following long term trends whereby patience is lost when wars become long and indecisive. While this is normal, differences of opinion among American leaders are unusually pronounced as they seek to prevail in the 2008 election. Efforts at compromise have been difficult at best.In terms of American interests, most agree that there are substantial challenges, but the nature of these challenges and the best way to address them are disputed. The paper will look at past questions regarding interests to explore the nature of and questions regarding American interests. This election, more so than prior U.S. presidential elections, is being followed by people in many parts of the world. How much is up to the American people and how much is dictated by the world environment? What does the long-term evidence suggest? Can anything be learned from other democracies which have had a lot of power in the world? The purpose of this paper is not to give the answers regarding these debates and which candidate might be most qualified. Rather, the purpose is to raise issues which will help the reader place the 2008 presidential election in a historical context. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]