A Second Nuclear Revolution: From Nuclear Primacy to Post-Existential Deterrence.

In contrast to the recent upheaval concerning US nuclear primacy, the underlying trend in international politics tends towards an accelerated downgrading of the role of nuclear weapons. While nuclear weapons may (or may not) have made a substantial difference in the past, the Cold War conception of deterrence is of limited value in the post-Cold War period. This paper outlines five variables that undermine the so-called "nuclear revolution". Although most of these variables already existed before, their importance has grown since the mid-1990's, and there is every reason to assume that their role will be strengthened further in the foreseeable future. The aim of this paper is to enrich the understaffed academic debate about post-Cold War deterrence. At the same time, the model that is put forward here may be helpful for guiding political decision-makers in the nuclear weapon states. They are under pressure to adapt their nuclear weapons policies to the changed circumstances, as in, for instance, the request by the American Congress for the next administration to come up with a new nuclear posture before the end of 2009. But to what framework should the political decision-makers themselves turn ? And which options are currently available ?Before describing the causal mechanisms that undermine nuclear deterrence, we will clarify the conceptual confusion about nuclear deterrence policies. More in particular, a distinction will be made between nuclear primacy, maximum deterrence, minimum deterrence, existential deterrence and post-existential deterrence. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]