Public Opinion on Social Security and Medicare: Continuity and Change in a Period of Dissensus.

Historically, Medicare and Social Security have enjoyed widespread support from both policy elites and the general public. However, at the policy elite level what was once a politics of consensus, marked by extensive support for Medicare and Social Security, has transformed into a politics of dissensus, marked by heated and divisive rhetoric regarding the state of the programs. In this paper we ask whether the politics of dissensus at the elite level has caused public support for Social Security and Medicare to weaken. Public support for these two programs is often said to rest on two pillars of public opinion. The first pillar is a belief in the core purpose of the programs; the second pillar is the belief that the programs are affordable public expenditures. Using data from dozens of public opinion surveys over time, we consider how strong the two pillars of support remain in an era marked by political rhetoric of dissensus. First, we analyze historical trends in public opinion in the support for the purpose of Medicare and Social Security. In doing so, we also consider the extent to which public opinion is unified in its support for the programs, or whether what was once a "single public opinion" has since become divided by partisanship, ideology, and age. Second, we examine the extent to which the public expresses concern over the future financial viability of the twoprograms. Our analyses find that while public support remains strong, and relatively unified, in the purpose of Medicare and Social Security, the second pillar of public opinion (that the programs are affordable public expenditures) is weaker. Finally, we show that members of the public support a few incremental changes that would address their financial concerns and oppose a number of others. We conclude by suggesting that it behooves policymakers to take a careful look at where the public stands and build on that support in order to overcome the current politics of dissensus. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]