Personal Vehicles in Delhi: Petrol Demand and Carbon Emission.

The aim of this paper is to estimate the future growth of personal vehicles and to project the subsequent increase in petrol demand and carbon monoxide emission in Delhi. Based on the data from 1965-1966 to 2005-2006 of four-wheelers and two-wheelers, a long-term trend in the growth of personal vehicles is projected up to the year 2020-2021. The logistic model fits well in projecting the growth of four-wheelers, and the Gompertz model is better in the case of two-wheelers. It is found that the total number of personal vehicles will increase from 4.5 million in 2005-2006 to 10.62 million in 2020-2021, with increasing share of four-wheelers. In 2020-2021, the projected growth of personal vehicles will demand nearly double the quantity of petrol in comparison with the level of 2005-2006. Similarly, carbon monoxide emission will increase to 2.5 times more than the 2005 level. The conversion of four-wheelers from petrol engine into compressed natural gas engine will reduce the petrol demand marginally, but carbon monoxide emission will decrease significantly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]