Hybrid approach to the Japanese candlestick method for financial forecasting

Abstract: This paper discusses an experimental study of the Japanese candlestick method as used in hybrid stock market forecasting models. Two models are presented in this paper. Model 1 is a committee machine with simple generalized regression neural networks (GRNN) experts. This model also has a simple gating network. Model 2 has a similar committee machine along with a hybrid type gating network that contains fuzzy logic. Model 1 was developed to introduce the candlestick method and examine whether using the candlestick method improves performance. Model 2 is developed to determine whether the application of fuzzy logic could improve the former model. This model uses standard IF-THEN rules based fuzzy logic. In the experiment, a few simple Japanese candlestick patterns are integrated into the models. Both models use the same simple candlestick patterns to provide a basis for comparison. The Japanese candlestick method is implemented in the gating network. Model 1 uses features of candlestick patterns in the gating network. Model 2 uses candlestick patterns for recognizing the strength of market conditions. To investigate the performance of these models, the daily stock quotes of Hewlett-Packard, Bank of America, Ford, DuPont, and Yahoo are used as input data sets. The performance of the models was satisfactory based on the mean squared error. [Copyright &y& Elsevier]