U.S. Presidential Images and Feelings of Control: Crises as Catalysts for Change.

This paper examines the role that the pre-existing operational code beliefs of decision makers play toward facilitating or hindering learning following exposure to foreign policy crises. Specifically, I look at U.S. Presidential images of the "other" and feelings of control (from John F. Kennedy to George W. Bush), and test whether yielding high or low values on these indices prior to crisis exposure leads to unique, systematic influences on learning from crises. Additionally, I evaluate the role of crisis outcome, the order in which the crisis was experienced, and other crisis-related factors as they might influence the type and degree of learning that results from crisis exposure. Results suggest that those who see the world as a friendly place prior to crisis exposure become more wary of their peers and adversaries following crises than would be expected either by those who initially see the world as a hostile place and experience a crisis, or by those who initially see the world as a friendly place but then fail to experience a crisis. The evidence does not support similar expectations regarding feelings of control. Further, as hypothesized, leaders who initially see the world as hostile, or who initially feel low levels of control do not appear to respond distinctively to crises. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]