Volatilidade de Mercado e de Variáveis Macroeconômicas: Um Estudo da Intensidade da Associação para a Economia Brasileira.

The purpose of this article is to assess the intensity of the linear association between the conditional volatility of stock market returns in Brazil and the conditional volatility of macro-economic variables of interest, specifically, the current account deficit, the industrial production, the money supply, the exchange rate and the interest rate. To this end we fit a multivariate SUR model. The conclusion is that, in level, the determinants of the conditional variance of the IBOVESPA are the components of conditional variance of the interest rate and money supply, showing a direct contemporaneous relations, and, showing inverse relations, the conditional variances of inflation and industrial production. There is no empirical evidence of influence of the conditional variances of the exchange market and the current account deficit. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]