Estimating Intentions in an Age of Terrorism: Garthoff Revisited.

The article examines the ten common fallacies made in estimating and imputing intentions during the Cold War with the Soviet Union identified by Raymond Garthoff in 1978. It notes that options capable of dealing the worst case scenario may be ineffective or hold serious negative consequences when applied to a lesser threat. It suggests that some modification is needed to the fallacy that Soviet capabilities are larger than needed for deterrence in order to increase its relevance to the terrorist challenge.