Realpolitik Swinging between Interdependence and Nationalism: China's Foreign Policy in the Post-Cold War Northeast Asia.

China's foreign policy in the post-Cold War northeast Asia is shaped primarily by four key factors: realpolitik or balance of power politics, economic interdependence, nationalism and political leadership. How these factors figure out and how they combine with each other would shape the course of China's foreign policy toward either accommodative/cooperative or assertive/aggressive direction. Depending on whether Chinese realpolitik is more constrained by economic interdependence or more dominated by nationalist reactions, China's foreign policy would swing between cooperative and assertive courses. However, considering a firm consensus within Chinese leadership on the necessity of continuous economic growth for its political legitimacy, it is predicted that China would rather pursue a prudent realpolitik guided by balance of power politics and constrained by increasing economic interdependence. As a result, an accommodative/ cooperative course of behavior is more likely to be the normal course of China's foreign policy, though there still remains a possibility of swift swings toward assertive and aggressive course of behavior when vital Chinese nationalist interests are challenged. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]