"Color" Revolutions in Commonwealth of Independent States: Variables of Success. Comparative Study of Azerbaijan, Georgia and Ukraine.

The last three years were very important in democratic development of former Soviet countries. The series of democratic "color revolutions" in which people angered by rigged elections had toppled entrenched, corrupt leaders in Georgia (2003), Ukraine (2004), and Kyrgyzstan (2005) led analysts to believe that other republics, particularly Azerbaijan that was supposed to have parliament elections in fall of 2005, will follow their ways. Unfortunately democratic revolution did not take place in Azerbaijan. Instead, despite mass demonstrations and active opposition struggle, current autocratic regime once again falsified parliament elections and strengthened its position. In his seminal article, "Transitions from Post-Communism," Michael McFaul pointed out several factors that lead to a successful revolution, including:1. A semi-autocratic rather than fully autocratic regime. 2. An unpopular incumbent.3. A united, organized opposition. 4. The ability of independent media to quickly drive home the point that voting results were falsified. 5. A political opposition capable of mobilizing thousands of citizens to protest electoral fraud. 6. Divisions among the regime's coercive forces. The paper compares the situation in three countries from McFaul's position and analyzes the reasons and factors that led to successful revolutions in Georgia and Ukraine, and failure in Azerbaijan. Furthermore, the paper discusses the role of foreign actors such as the United States, Russia, the European Union and international NGOs in these revolutions ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]