Who's Driving? Uncovering the Source of Opinion Change in American Politics.

This paper attempts to determine whether citizens that "drive" changes in public opinion share certain demographic characteristics. Extant theory informs us that these citizens should be attentive to media signals (sophisticated) and unattached to either side of the ideological spectrum (moderate). Conversely, unsophisticated ideologues should be unresponsive because they do not pay attention to media signals and are attached to an ideology that mitigates their response. I analyze three time series from the General Social Survey. In each, I find parallel opinion movement from sophisticated moderates and unsophisticated ideologues. Using regression analysis, I find that sophisticated moderates contribute significantly more to changes in executive confidence, unsophisticated ideologues contribute significantly more to changes in welfare spending preferences, and both strata contribute equally to changes in defense spending preferences. I conclude that the extant theory is not supported empirically; there is no evidence that sophisticated moderates consistently "drive" changes in public opinion. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]