Political Liberalization and Military Intervention in African States Since 1991.

This study investigates the apparent association between a trajectory of political liberalization and the absence of military intervention in politics in African states since the early 1990s. The experience of a sizable group of African states suggests that a trend of political liberalization may "inoculate" these states against military intervention in the political realm. Such trends can be easily tracked by examining the "Freedom House" scores over a period of years. Such states as Benin, Ghana, Senegal, Tanzania, and Zambia have all experienced increasingly high levels of political freedom and civil rights without suffering military intervention from the early 1990s into the 2000s. If such a relationship exists, though, it is far from uncomplicated. For one, it is not so clear which way the causation runs when one studies a broader population of states: it some cases, military intervention has been the apparent cause of a states entering upon a trajectory of authoritarianism. Further, some states that experienced a nominal transition to formal multiparty competition in the early 1990s, such as Congo-Brazzaville, the Central African Republic, and Niger subsequently suffered coups d'état or civil war. If there is a general linkage between liberalization and military forbearance, these "anomalies" will need to be explained. Finally, a trend toward increasing authoritarianism does not necessarily seem to increase the risk of intervention. Regimes such as those in Ethiopia, Sudan, Uganda, Zimbabwe have been more authoritarian in recent years without stimulating coups or (new) rebellions. These regimes may be using a different "modality" (to use Decalo's phrase) for control over the military. In sum, then, this paper will attempt to evaluate the quality of the argument that progressive democratization leads to stable civilian rule by examining both the counter-evidence, and the underlying logic of why militaries typically intervene in politics in African states. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]