Homogeneity and Heterogeneity in Opinion-Policy Dynamics.

This paper examines homogeneity and heterogeneity in preferences for public policy, across income and education levels, and party identification, and across policy domains in the US, UK and Canada. Do preferences differ across segments of the public at particular points in time? What about over time - do we observe a uniform swing across different groups (parallel publics), or does the flow of opinion differ across party, income, and education? Our data on public preferences for government spending show systematic cross-sectional differences across sub-aggregates, but a fair degree of homogeneity in trends over time. Some longitudinal heterogeneity does exist, however, and we exploit these differences in dynamic models of the effects of public preferences - across income levels - on government spending in the US and Canada. Results point to some interesting, seemingly important differences in the representation of income groups across policy domains and countries. Perhaps most importantly, in contrast with the existing literature, we find that policymakers do not consistently follow the preferences of wealthiest citizens. If anything, the preferences of the middle class matter most, though there are differences across policy domains. ..PAT.-Unpublished Manuscript [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]