Forecasting breakup water levels at Fort McMurray, Alberta, using multiple linear regression.

Spring breakup on northern rivers can result in ice jams that present severe flood risk to adjacent communities. Such events can occur extremely rapidly, leaving little or no advanced warning to residents. Fort McMurray, Alberta, is one such community, and at present no forecasting model exists for this site. Many of the previous studies regarding ice jam flood forecasting methods, in general, cite the lack of a comprehensive database as an obstacle to statistical modelling. This paper documents the development of an extensive database containing 106 variables, and covering the period from 1972 to 2004, that was created for ice jam forecasting on the Athabasca River. Through multiple linear regression analysis, equations were developed to model the maximum water level during spring breakup. The optimal model contained a combination of hydrological and meteorological data collected from early fall until the day before river ice breakup. The number of historical years of data, rather than the scope of variables, was found to be the major limitation in verifying the results presented in this study. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]