Fluctuating selection on reproductive timing in Digitalis purpurea.

Despite recent, strong interest in the modelling of monocarpic perennial flowering strategies, little is known about how variation in demographic rates affects selection on optimal timing of flowering. Temporal variation may yield fluctuating selective pressures, or, if individuals experience time trends, selection for phenotypic plasticity. Here we report the results of a 3-year study in a large field population of the facultative biennial herb Digitalis purpurea, where we use field data on size-dependent growth, survival and fecundity to parameterize an existing optimisation model. We compare results from models using either deterministic or individually varying demographic rates to address the degree of fluctuating selection on the flowering strategy. In addition, we explore whether recent growing conditions influence the size-specific liability to flower. Model results differed widely between years; immediate onset of reproduction was predicted in 1999, strongly delayed reproduction in 2000. This reflected large differences in both growth and survival rates between years. Observed flowering sizes also varied between years, but were larger in 1999 than in 2000, contrary to model predictions. Incorporating individual variation in growth increased predicted optimal flowering sizes compared to models using deterministic growth, whereas the inclusion of individual survival variation had little effect. There was no significant effect of recent growth rate on flowering probability. Taken together, these results indicate highly fluctuating selection on the flowering strategy in D. purpurea, but no evidence of adaptive plasticity in response to current growing conditions. Fluctuating selection may contribute to maintain genetic variation for threshold size for flowering, and may partly explain the large within-season size-variation in flowering individuals found in natural populations of D. purpurea. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]