Modelling the occurrence of rainbow lorikeets ( Trichoglossus haematodus) in Melbourne.

Over the previous three decades, the rainbow lorikeet ( Trichoglossus haematodus Family Psittacidae) has increased in urbanized areas of Australia. To help understand the nature of this increase, we investigated the influence of road density, tree cover and season on the occurrence of the rainbow lorikeet in the Melbourne region. Bayesian logistic regression was used to construct models to predict the occurrence of rainbow lorikeets, using Birds Australia atlas data at 207 2-ha sites. The results demonstrate a strong relationship between tree cover and urbanization and the distribution of the species. The best model incorporated quadratic terms for road density and tree cover, and interaction terms, as well as season as a categorical variable. Probability of occurrence of rainbow lorikeets was highest at medium tree cover (40% to 70% of the site covered) and medium road density (9% to 12% of the surrounding area covered by roads). There was a close correspondence between the predictions of the model and new observations from bird surveys conducted at randomly selected field sites. The increased abundance of the species in urban areas has occurred despite a paucity of hollows that would act as suitable nesting sites, suggesting that only a small proportion of the population is breeding in these areas. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]