China, a Unified Korea, and Geopolitics.

How will the People's Republic of China respond to the unification of Korea? This study proceeds from the assumption that some sort of reconciliation process, leading ultimately to reunification, will take place on the Korean Peninsula over the next decade. Under this scenario, Korean union would occur without an armed conflict that would poison relations between North and South, and it would leave the peninsula under the control of Seoul. Unification would give birth to a middleweight power, whether measured by population, industrial capacity, or military capability, virtually overnight. Viewed from Beijing, a united Korea, especially one that played host to U.S. military and naval forces, could cast a long shadow over China's seaborne commerce, the wellspring of economic vitality for northern China. In recent years it has become abundantly clear that Beijing will play a crucial role in the future of Korea. Despite the intellectual and policy attention accorded China's role on the peninsula, one factor remains woefully unexplored: the influence of geopolitics on Chinese strategic thought. This essay argues that geopolitics is alive and well in East Asia. China's history will shape its attitude toward Korean unification and impart a distinct geographical hue to its foreign-policy calculations. Beijing will resist the emergence of a pro-American Korea that could imperil China's access to East Asian and Pacific waterways. It will shape its regional policy and maritime strategy accordingly. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]