COVID-19'un etkilerinin seçilmiş sağlık göstergeleri üzerinden incelenmesi ve ONGBM (1,1) ile gelecek tahmini.

Objective: The coronavirus disease 2019 (COVID-19) has caused the world to face a pandemic that has negative effects in many areas from education to health, transportation to economy. In this process throughout the world, various measures have been tried to be taken and different policies have been implemented to lessen the impact on human health and to end this disease. The aim of this study is to evaluate the effects of COVID-19 through selected health status indicators for Türkiye and to make future predictions through different scenarios. Methods: Within the scope of the study, Türkiye's public and private health expenditures per capita, crude death rate, crude birth rate and life expectancy at birth were evaluated. These indicators cover the years 2009-2021. Two scenarios were produced. Scenario 1 poses the question: "What changes would be observed in selected health indicators by 2030 if there were no pandemic?". For this purpose, future forecasts were made until 2030 using 2009-2021 data. In the second scenario, an assessment is made: "How will the selected health indicators develop by 2030 after the pandemic has occurred?". In this context, forecasts were made until 2030 using 2009-2021 data. The study used the ONGBM (1,1) model for estimation and found that the MAPE (mean absolute percentage error) values were less than 10%. Results: According to Scenario 2, it is expected that there will be a higher increase in public health expenditures and a lower increase in private health expenditures until 2030 compared to Scenario 1. While a decrease in the crude death rate was expected until 2030 in Scenario 1, an expectation for an increase in Scenario 2 emerged. The expectation of a decrease in the crude birth rate is graeater in Scenario 2. In terms of life expectancy at birth, it is expected to increase in Scenario 1 and decrease according to Scenario 2. When the forecast results of Scenarios 1 and 2 from 2022 to 2030 were compared, it was determined that there were statistically significant differences between the two scenarios. Therefore, it was concluded that COVID-19 had a breaking effect on health indicators. Conclusion: The findings revealed that decision makers and managers should reconsider future decisions because of COVID-19 and develop alternative solutions by creating different scenarios while planning. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]