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Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) in Asia Using the Intermediate‐Resolution Global Climate Model FORTE2.

Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) in Asia Using the Intermediate‐Resolution Global Climate Model FORTE2.

Authors :
Stjern, Camilla W.
Joshi, Manoj
Wilcox, Laura J.
Gollop, Amee
Samset, Bjørn H.
Source :
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems. Dec2024, Vol. 16 Issue 12, p1-21. 21p.
Publication Year :
2024

Abstract

Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are rapidly changing, in amounts, composition and geographical distribution. In East and South Asia in particular, strong aerosol trends combined with high population densities imply high potential vulnerability to climate change. Improved knowledge of how near‐term climate and weather influences these changes is urgently needed, to allow for better‐informed adaptation strategies. To understand and decompose the local and remote climate impacts of regional aerosol emission changes, we perform a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using the reduced‐complexity climate model FORTE 2.0 (FORTE2). Absorbing and scattering aerosols are perturbed separately, over East Asia and South Asia, to assess their distinct influences on climate. In this paper, we first present an updated version of FORTE2, which includes treatment of aerosol‐cloud interactions. We then document and validate the local responses over a range of parameters, showing for instance that removing emissions of absorbing aerosols over both East Asia and South Asia is projected to cause a local drying, alongside a range of more widespread effects. We find that SyRAP‐FORTE2 is able to reproduce the responses to Asian aerosol changes documented in the literature, and that it can help us decompose regional climate impacts of aerosols from the two regions. Finally, we show how SyRAP‐FORTE2 has regionally linear responses in temperature and precipitation and can be used as input to emulators and tunable simple climate models, and as a ready‐made tool for projecting the local and remote effects of near‐term changes in Asian aerosol emissions. Plain Language Summary: Emissions of anthropogenic aerosols are rapidly changing, both in amounts, composition, and geographical distribution. Aerosol‐climate impacts follow patterns and time evolutions different to those from greenhouse gas‐driven surface warming, potentially enhancing climate risk. However, our understanding of these patterns and processes is still limited. In East and South Asia, strong aerosol trends and high population densities imply a high potential vulnerability to climate change. To allow for better‐informed adaptation strategies, there is an urgent need for improved knowledge of how near‐term climate and weather influences these changes. Here we perform a set of Systematic Regional Aerosol Perturbations (SyRAP) using the reduced‐complexity climate model FORTE 2 to decompose the climate impacts of regional aerosol emission changes. We developed a new functionality in the model, allowing for the ability to emulate the indirect aerosol effect—in isolation or in combination with aerosol radiation interactions. We investigate the separate roles of both light‐absorbing and ‐scattering aerosols, and the distinct impacts of emission perturbations in East versus South Asia. We find that SyRAP‐FORTE2 is able to reproduce the responses to Asian aerosol changes documented in the literature, and that it can help us decompose regional climate impacts of aerosols from the two regions. Key Points: Removing emissions of absorbing aerosols over both East Asia and South Asia is projected to cause a local dryingIn certain subregions, the impact of SO4 on precipitation is strongly dependent on the background climate stateResults show regionally linear responses in temperature and precipitation and can be used as input to emulators and simple climate models [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]

Details

Language :
English
ISSN :
19422466
Volume :
16
Issue :
12
Database :
Academic Search Index
Journal :
Journal of Advances in Modeling Earth Systems
Publication Type :
Academic Journal
Accession number :
181824083
Full Text :
https://doi.org/10.1029/2023MS004171