Elevated lipid accumulation product trajectory patterns are associated with increasing incident risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus in China.

Our study aimed to identify the trajectory patterns of lipid accumulation product (LAP) and investigate their association with the incident risk of type 2 diabetes mellitus (T2DM) in China. This study included 37,316 eligible participants, with data collected between1998 and 2021. The LAP trajectory patterns were identified through latent mixture modeling. Logistic regression models were used to examine the association between different LAP trajectory patterns and the incident risk of T2DM. Over an average period of 12.7 years, 3195 participants developed T2DM. Four LAP trajectory patterns were identified: low stable, moderate slow-increasing, high decreasing, and moderate fast-increasing. After adjusting for demographic and clinical confounders, the odds ratios (ORs) and 95 % confidence intervals (CIs) for T2DM were 1.67 (1.50, 1.86) for the moderate slow-increasing group, 1.63 (1.38, 1.94) for the high decreasing group, and 2.43 (2.07, 2.85) for the moderate fast-increasing group compared with the low stable group. Similar trajectory patterns were found in sex-specific populations as in the general population, while the elevated LAP trajectory pattern was more strongly associated with an increase in the incident risk of T2DM in females. Individuals with moderate fast-increasing LAP trajectory patterns had a 2.4 times higher risk of developing T2DM compared to those with low stable LAP patterns. More attention should be paid to preventing T2DM in people with high levels of LAP, especially females, the elderly, drinkers, and people with a history of diabetes. • Individuals with rapidly rising lipid accumulation product had a 2.4-fold higher diabetes risk. • Elevated lipid accumulation product trajectory was more strongly linked to higher diabetes risk in females. • To prevent diabetes, focus should be on managing sudden or sharp rises in lipid accumulation product. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]