Signs and portents: determining the long-term association of New Deal era redlining with contemporary racial/ethnic compositions.

AbstractThis study explores the impact of New Deal-era redlining in the form of Home Owners Loan Corporation (HOLC) evaluations on the racial and ethnic makeup of U.S. cities decades later. We draw upon a sample of 172 cities across the United States from the <italic>Mapping Decline</italic> project and historical Census data collected by the <italic>Integrated Public Use Microdata Series</italic> (<italic>IPUMS</italic>) and the <italic>Longitudinal Tract Database (LTDB)</italic>, addressing a gap in the literature by directly measuring whether the HOLC grades predict the subsequent local distribution of Black, Hispanic, and Asian populations. Our findings reveal a discernible yet diminishing connection between HOLC redlining and future Black populations, with the relationship with future Hispanic populations varying depending on whether the HOLC grade was a C or D. Only some correlation is observed between HOLC redlining and future Asian populations. This study highlights the intricate and evolving dynamics of race influenced by historical housing policies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]