Prospective Analysis for the Fuel-Alcohol Business in the Colombian Sugar Sector - Foresight and Strategic Thinking.

In response to the need raised by the Colombian Government and the vision, commitment, and leadership of the Colombian sugar sector, several companies have started alcohol- based fuel plants since 2005, with a production capacity of more than 1.5 ML of alcohol per day in continuous operation. Currently, in Colombia, the mixture of ethanol in 10% and 90% of gasoline of fossil origin is approved for use. Based on all the recorded background and the public policy motivation expressed in the CONPES 3510 document, a strategic prospective analysis was conducted using various tools to establish scenarios to consider on the basis of the year 2028. First, 30 key variables were identified that represent the most important aspects for the ethanol business and the prospective exercise that will serve as the basis for the evaluation of these in the present and future. Then, a trend and structural analysis was conducted based on the Regnier Abacus to determine the positive or negative trends. Using the MIC MAC tool, the relationships between the variables were analyzed, using a cross-impact matrix to determine the motor skills index and the dependency index, thus determining the main influential and dependent variables that are considered the keys to the problem being analyzed. Through a IGO matrix, the importance and governability of the variables was established, identifying which ones should be prioritized because they are the object of improvement with high potential. Using an Uncertainty Matrix, the certainty variables were identified, correlating them with their importance in a three-level classification. All the results obtained were consolidated into a matrix for the construction of the scenarios. Finally, through the Delphi method, convergences of opinion and consensuses around precise issues were revealed through questions to experts. Scenarios for the Colombian sugar industry were then developed and presented as trend, optimistic and pessimistic scenarios. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]