1989—2021年非洲武装冲突事件的 时空演变特征研究.

Africa, as one of the regions with significant political instability in the world today, experiences ongoing armed conflicts that have a serious impact on the peace and stability of the region and the international situation. Based on data from three types of armed conflict points in the 54 countries of Africa, a study was conducted on the spatiotemporal distribution patterns of armed conflicts in Africa from 1989 to 2021, using statistical analysis, kernel density, average center, and hotspot analysis methods. The results are as follows:(1)From 1989 to 2021, armed conflicts in Africa showed a trend of increase, decrease, and then increase again, exhibiting an overall "U-shaped" development pattern. At the same time, the number of conflicts is on the rise, with the hierarchy of conflict types being state armed conflicts > one-sided violent armed conflicts > non-state armed conflicts;(2)The spatial distribution characteristics revealed by kernel density analysis show that armed conflict outbreak points in Africa roughly form a "three" pat‐ tern from North Africa to South Africa. The main concentration of armed conflict outbreaks is along the Mediterranean coast, the region around 10° north and south latitude that crosses the equator, and the southern region of Africa;(3)The migration of armed conflict centers in Africa is mainly concentrated in the central region of Africa, intersected by the equator. The migration path of the centers includes the Democratic Republic of Congo, Chad, South Sudan, and the Cen‐ tral African Republic;(4)In terms of the distribution of hotspots and cold-spots, the high concen‐ tration of armed conflicts in Africa is mainly found in the central region, the northern part of North Africa, and the northern part of East Africa. The relatively low-conflict areas are mainly located in the western part of West Africa, the southern part of Central Africa, the southern part of East Africa, and South Africa. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]