How do global forest pests respond to increasing temperatures? – a meta‐analysis.

Biotic disturbances caused by insects and pathogens have a major impact on forests in the Northern Hemisphere. Knowledge of the effects of increasing temperature on the performance of these forest pests will thus be crucial for predicting future disturbance risks. Here, we systematically review the direct effects of increasing temperatures on four functional subgroups of forest pests, including leaf chewers, sap suckers, bark and wood borers, and pathogens. We considered 118 studies (2003–2022) representing 72 pest species feeding on 33 host genera from sub‐tropical, temperate and boreal forests in Asia, Europe and North America. Based on a subset of 89 studies reporting the required data, we conducted a meta‐analysis 1) distinguishing the functional subgroups, and 2) considering the main life‐history traits, i.e. development, fitness and survival. A temperature corresponding to the expected mean temperature during the growing season in the years 2081–2100 had a significant positive effect on the overall performance of leaf chewers (+18%) and bark and wood borers (+10%), while sap suckers and pathogens remained unaffected. In contrast, performance was not or even significantly negatively affected when a more pronounced temperature increase, i.e. corresponding to the temperature maxima in 2081–2100, was considered. This finding reflects the non‐linear temperature–performance relationship beyond currently evolved temperature optima in insects and pathogens. Furthermore, we showed that differential responses of life‐history traits to increased temperatures may counterbalance each other (e.g. development versus survival), highlighting the importance of a multi‐trait approach to assessing the impact of global warming on pest performance. By quantifying the effects of increasing temperatures on forest pest performance, our results facilitate the prediction of biotic disturbance impacts in a future climate. For instance, they could provide a valuable contribution to the parameterization of large‐scale ecosystem models, which often do not explicitly consider the response of biotic disturbances to climate change. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]