Eco-climatological modeling approach for exploring spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem service values in response to land use and land cover changes in Riyadh, Saudi Arabia.

Rapid urbanization and land use/land cover (LULC) changes have become global phenomena, significantly impacting ecosystems and climate, which are key concerns in eco-climatology. Focusing on Riyadh, the rapidly growing capital of Saudi Arabia, this study investigated the spatiotemporal dynamics of ecosystem service values (ESVs) in response to LULC changes using an eco-climatological modeling approach. Support vector machine algorithms were employed on Google Earth Engine to classify Landsat imagery and map LULC in Riyadh for 1993, 2003, 2013, and 2023. ESVs were quantified using global coefficients to assess the impact of LULC changes on the eco-climatological system. Results revealed substantial LULC changes during 1993–2023, with built-up areas expanded by 330.79% (777.76 km²), vegetation by 114.30% (32.14 km²), and waterbody areas by 888.89% (7.20 km²). Conversely, barren soil and cropland areas declined by 9.41% (727.90 km²) and 84.40% (89.14 km²), respectively. These LULC changes led to significant alterations in ESVs, with barren soil and cropland losses resulting in ESV reductions of $591.56 million and $555.91 million, respectively. However, increased vegetated areas contributed to $750.40 million ESV rise. Spatially, western Riyadh experienced the most pronounced ESV declines due to rapid urbanization. Overall, total ESV decreased by $206.37 million over the 30-year, with supporting and cultural service values declining by $174.04 million and $39.91 million, respectively. Provisioning and regulating services increased by $3.58 million and $4.02 million. The eco-climatological modeling approach effectively captured the complex interactions between LULC dynamics, ecosystems, and ESVs in this arid environment, highlighting the need for sustainable land management strategies that balance urban growth, ecosystem preservation, and climate change adaptation and mitigation. This study contributes to eco-climatology by demonstrating advanced modeling techniques for assessing spatiotemporal ESV dynamics in response to LULC changes, informing future research and policy in rapidly urbanizing regions. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]