A Host Tree and Its Specialist Insects: Black Locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) Availability Largely Determines the Future Range Dynamics of Its Specialist Insects in Europe.

Simple Summary: Black locust (Robinia pseudoacacia) and its specialist insects have major effects on ecosystems in Europe, where the former is the only host of the latter. Here, we determined the relative roles of host plant availability and other predictors in shaping the specialist insects' future range dynamics. Range expansions were detected in all target species. Climate predictors were expected to have the strongest effects on the range shifts of the host plant, while host plant availability had the strongest effect on the range shifts of the specialist insects. Therefore, range shifts in specialist insects tracked those of their host. Mitigating future climate change might be one of the key approaches for controlling invasions of Robinia-specialist insects in Europe, given that their range changes follow those of their specialist host plant, and future climate changes were mainly responsible for the range expansions of the host plant. Black locust is the only host of Robinia-specialist insects in Europe. However, no study to date has examined future range shifts of specialist insects, and the relative effects of host plant availability and other factors on their range shifts. Here, we characterized the future range shifts in the host and its four specialist insects and the factors contributing to changes in their ranges. We detected substantial range expansions in all target species. Climate predictors and host plant availability were expected to have the strongest effects on the range shifts in the host and its specialist insects, respectively, suggesting that the specialist insects will track the ranges of their host. Parectopa robiniella showed the largest potential and expanding ranges and should be made a priority species for controlling invasions of Robinia-specialist insects in Europe. The expanding ranges of all specialist species were largely identified in the United Kingdom, Germany, and France, suggesting that these should be priority regions for mitigating their effects on ecosystems. Reducing future climate change is essential for preventing the spreading of specialist insects in Europe since specialist insects track their specialist host plants, and host range expansions are mainly driven by future climate changes. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]