Assessing land degradation neutrality in semi-arid dryland agroecosystems of the matabeleland North province of Zimbabwe.

Semi-arid agroecosystems are crucial for food security and ecosystem services, but land degradation threatens their sustainability. This study assessed land degradation neutrality (LDN) in a semi-arid agroecosystem of Matabeleland North Province, Zimbabwe, leveraging trends.earth within QGIS and data from the European Space Agency Climate Change Initiative (1992–2020). We analysed land use/land cover (LULC), soil organic carbon (SOC), and land productivity to identify areas of degradation and stability. Additionally, we simulated 2050 land-use/land-cover maps using a cellular automata model within a GIS framework assuming a business-as-usual scenario. The model considered the 2015 LULC map as a baseline along with environmental variables such as the digital elevation model and slope. While historical trends (1992–2020) showed a decrease in bare areas (-71%) and an increase in settlements (+ 163%), cellular automata modeling predicted a concerning future trajectory with further expansion of bare land (+ 238%) and settlements (+ 72%) by 2050, alongside a decline in water bodies (-23%) and forests (-3.5%). Notably, around 26.5% of the land exhibited degradation, often linked to low SOC levels in croplands, while 59.55% remained stable over the study period. However, caution is necessary as increases in greenness may not always reflect positive restoration. Land cover transitions, particularly the conversion of forests to grasslands and settlements, emerged as potential drivers of degradation, likely leading to ecosystem service loss, habitat fragmentation, and potentially exacerbating the impacts of climate change. These findings highlight the urgent need for targeted restoration and land management strategies focused on improving SOC levels in croplands and conserving vital forest and grassland ecosystems to achieve LDN in this semi-arid region. Further research is needed to quantify specific degradation drivers, assess the effectiveness of intervention strategies, and explore the socio-economic dimensions of land degradation and LDN efforts. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]