External Debt, Transmission Channels, and Economic Growth: Evidence of Debt Overhang and Crowding-Out Effect.

This study investigates the intricate relationship between external debt, debt service, and economic growth by using the panel data of 32 Asian Developing Economies (ADE) spanning 1995 to 2020. Employing a two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) and a dynamic common correlated estimate (DCCE) model, the research explores key macroeconomic channels through which debt influences growth and rigorously tests for debt overhang and crowding-out effects. Findings reveal that public and private investment, total factor productivity, and national savings are pivotal channels transmitting the non-linear effect of external debt on economic growth. Notably, only private and public investment convey the non-linear effects of debt service to economic growth, while productivity and savings convey the linear effect. Evidence of debt overhang and crowding-out effects is identified in the sampled economies. The study suggests strategic measures for developing countries, emphasizing the productive use of accumulated debt, enhanced debt management, and timely project completion. Furthermore, it advocates for fostering economic growth through increased productivity, domestic savings, and private sector expansion to reduce dependence on foreign debt, facilitating both debt repayment and economic self-sufficiency. Plain language summary: This study explores the intricate links among external debt, debt service, and economic growth in 32 Asian Developing Economies from 1995 to 2020. Using advanced statistical methods like the two-step system generalized method of moments (GMM) and a dynamic common correlated estimate (DCCE) model, the research investigates various macroeconomic pathways, specifically testing for non-linear effects such as debt overhang and crowding-out. Key findings emphasize the significance of public and private investment, total factor productivity, and national savings as pivotal channels for the non-linear impact of external debt on economic growth. Notably, the study reveals that private and public investment exhibit non-linear effects in response to debt service, while productivity and savings show linear effects. The research recommends strategic approaches for developing countries, focusing on judicious debt management, timely project completion, and initiatives to boost productivity, domestic savings, and private sector growth, thereby reducing reliance on foreign debt. Acknowledging valuable insights, the study recognizes limitations in the available data from 32 countries and emphasizes the need for further investigation into mediating and moderating variables in the relationship between external debt and economic growth. Particularly in the context of foreign debt financing policies, the study underscores the importance of exploring threshold values for negative impacts on transmission channels, suggesting avenues for future research to provide a more nuanced understanding of the dynamics involved. In essence, the study offers valuable insights into the nuanced relationship between external debt and economic growth, along with strategic recommendations for sustainable development in developing economies. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]