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Forecasts and Contingencies: From Methodology to Policy.
- Source :
-
Conference Papers -- American Political Science Association . 2002 Annual Meeting, Boston, MA, p1-23. 24p. - Publication Year :
- 2002
-
Abstract
- A "folk criticism" in political science maintains that the discipline should confine its efforts to explanation and avoid venturing down the dark, dirty, and dangerous path to forecasting and prediction. I argue that not only is this position inconsistent with the experiences of other sciences, but in fact the questions involved in making robust and valid predictions invoke many core methodological issues in political analysis. Those issues include, among others, the question of the level of predictability in political behavior, the problem of case selection in small-N situations, and the various alternative models that could be used to formalize predictions. This essay focuses on the problem of forecasting in international politics, and concludes by noting some of the problems of institutional culture-bureaucratic and academic-that have inhibited greater use of systematic forecasting methods in foreign policy. Check author’s web site for an updated version of the paper. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]
- Subjects :
- *POLITICAL science
*PRACTICAL politics
*POLITICAL rights
*INTERNATIONAL relations
Subjects
Details
- Language :
- English
- Database :
- Academic Search Index
- Journal :
- Conference Papers -- American Political Science Association
- Publication Type :
- Conference
- Accession number :
- 17985154