The Political Consequences of Electoral Laws: The German System at Fifty.

The paper analyzes the political consequences of the electoral system of the Federal Republic of Germany, recently taken as a model for electoral reforms -or proposal for reform- in several democracies. In the analysis, particular attention is devoted to the political conditions typical of the different phases of evolution of the party system after 1949, with the purpose of inserting the ‘mechanical’ and ‘psychological’ effects of the electoral system in the broader political context. In fact, although the manipulative impact of the electoral system per se on the party system is undeniable in some historical circumstances, exogenous factors proved to be of great importance in enhancing the capability of the electoral system to give shape to the party system. Among such factors could be mentioned the strategies of the bigger parties vis-?-vis the smaller ones during the 1950s, with the parallel implementation of electoral reforms and the formation of ‘strategic’ alliances, as well as the repressive politics against extremists in the same years, the internal changes in the larger parties a few years later, the ‘learning’ process of the effects of the electoral law by the electorate in the subsequent years, etc. The historical analysis is of crucial importance for the correct understanding of the current phase of the German party system and the role of the electoral system in the near future, to which the second half of the paper is devoted. The national reunification of 1990 has brought about higher levels of electoral and parliamentary fragmentation, as well as an increased territorial differentiation of voting behavior, which stand in stark contrast with the stability and defragmentation of the German party system in the previous three decades. In this situation, the electoral system has regained political importance, both for its actual and potential manipulative effects, and for the revitalization of some of its features that had fallen into irrelevance during the previous decades, such as the alternative threshold and the surplus seats mechanism. The analysis of the post-reunification phase of the German party system against its historical background shows however that in the near future the electoral system is unlikely to contain, let alone to reverse, the current fragmenting trends of the party system, should these continue in their present form. The political conditions for electoral manipulation (strength of the PDS and existence of the alternative threshold, opposition of the Constitutional Court to a higher threshold of exclusion, increased influence of the surplus seats on the political equilibrium, etc.) are remarkably different now from those of the past, which leads to think that the near future for Germany will either be one of continuing party system fragmentation and more complicated coalition-building, or of sweeping electoral reform. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]