调水调沙期黄河下游河道洪峰增值预测方法研究.

Accurately predicting the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon in the Yellow River during the period of water and sediment regulation is not only an urgent need for reservoir dispatch and flood control, but also a new topic for hydraulics and river dynamics research. This paper took the value-added ratio as the dependent variable, the sediment concentration peak, the average rate of increase during the peak period of the sediment concentration, the base flow before the sediment concentration rises, the particle size of suspended sediment at Xiaolangdi Station as the independent variables and the correlation analysis was conducted. As a result, the sediment concentration peak at Xiaolangdi Station and the average rate of increase during the peak period of the sediment concentration are filtered out, as the prediction parameters for the flood peak discharge increase. The study proposes that the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon may occur in the Lower Yellow River when the average increase rate during the peak period of the sediment concentration at Xiaolangdi Station exceeds 22.9 kg/m³h, and the value-added interval can be predicted on the basis of the correlation between the peak sediment concentration and the value-added ratio of flood peak discharge. By tracking the real-time water and sediment conditions at Xiaolangdi Station during the water and sediment regulation in 2023, prediction and forecasting of the flood peak discharge increase phenomenon was carried out, the prediction results are basically consistent with the measured results. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]