Skillful prediction of the maximum air temperature over India using a seasonal prediction system.

Skill in predicting monthly mean daily maximum air temperature (MonTmax) over India during the pre-monsoon months (March to May) at lead times of 1–3 months by the Scale Interaction Experiment-Frontier Research Center for Global Change Version 2 (SINTEX-F2) model was evaluated. Analysis revealed that MonTmax in April over northwest and south India could be skillfully predicted by the model with a two-month lead time. The model predictions could capture most of the extreme MonTmax events over the two regions. Analysis of the extreme events in April in La Niña and El Niño years shows that the anomalous Matsuno-Gill atmospheric response to the precipitation anomalies over the northwest Pacific plays a crucial role in enhancing MonTmax anomalies over India. In the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) neutral years and in some ENSO years with sparse precipitation anomalies over the northwest and central Pacific, the atmospheric waves from higher latitudes play a role in enhancing MonTmax anomalies over northwest India. The SINTEX-F2 model could capture the processes realistically with minimal bias. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]