农业水价政策的节水效应 ——基于灌溉用水需求价格弹性的meta分析.

The comprehensive reform of agricultural water prices in China has entered a critical stage, and it is inevitable that the innovation of water-saving incentive mechanisms involving various prices meets the challenge of direct responses of farmers to the actual cost of irrigation water, so the issue of price elasticity of irrigation water demand must be addressed. Based on the 237 estimates on price elasticity of irrigation water demand from 59 studies worldwide between 1963 and 2022, this study quantified the key factors contributing to variations in price elasticity through a metaregression analysis. Subsequently, we explored the potential intervention space for agricultural water pricing policies by considering the heterogeneous effects of both price levels and elasticity intervals. The following results were obtained: ① Agricultural water prices had a positive impact on price elasticity, and increasing water prices remained an effective and robust means of agricultural water saving. Moreover, as price elasticity intervals increased, the impact on price elasticity due to price rises became greater, leading to more significant water-saving effects. ② The polyculture structure had higher price elasticity than the monoculture structure, and the price elasticity of high-value crops was lower than that of low-value crops. This indicated that the inhibitory effect of increasing water prices on irrigation water demand was more achievable when practicing polyculture or planting low-value crops. Furthermore, the water-saving effects of increasing water prices became more pronounced with wider price elasticity intervals in polyculture systems, whereas for farmers growing low-value crops, the watersaving effects of increasing water prices were more noticeable when the initial water price level was already high. ③ Compared to irrigation system reliant on a single water source, irrigation systems utilizing multiple water sources showed greater sensitivity to water price increases. This highlighted the optimal timing of water price adjustments based on the elasticity interval, which could effectively encourage the implementation of new irrigation water source substitution projects. The empirical results provide policy implications for further deepening the comprehensive reform of agricultural water prices and building a water-saving society in China. More emphasis should be placed on the management of irrigation water demand, and the strategy of raising agricultural water prices should be determined by the response degree of irrigation water demand to water prices. Moreover, differentiated agricultural water pricing schemes should be formulated according to the regional cropping structure. Simultaneously, scientific water use prediction based on the price elasticity of irrigation water demand should be included in the demonstration stage of irrigation water source expansion projects. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]