NEW DATA ON ECOLOGICAL NICHE MODELLING AND FUTURE CLIMATE PROJECTIONS OF ANATOLOLACERTA ANATOLICA (ANATOLIAN ROCK LIZARD).

This study aims to determine the current distribution of Anatololacerta anatolica by using known locations and then to model possible changes in the species distribution against the climate change scenarios, compare the current and the expected future distributions of the species, and provide information for conservation activities. The current distribution of Anatolian Rock Lizard was determined by field trips made during 2019 and 2020. The coordinates of 79 GPS data were obtained from the field trips, and 78 GPS data were collected from the literature survey. Totally, 157 GPS data of Anatololacerta anatolica species were eliminated. IPCC representative Carbon Concentration Pathways (RCP) scenarios (RCP-2.6, 4.5, 6, 8.5) for 2020, 2050 and 2070. Nineteen different bioclimatic variables were obtained from the WorldClim database, and the current and future distributions of the species were modeled using ecological niche modeling. The results of the models were converted into polygon data, and then their surface areas, centroids (the center of mass or center of gravity), displacement of centroids, and their movement directions were calculated and compared. Out of 19 bioclimatic variables, Isothermality, Temperature Seasonality, Minimum Temperature of Coldest Month, Mean Temperature of Wettest Quarter, and Precipitation of Driest Month were found to be the contributing factors explaining the distribution of the species. The current distribution model's Area Under Curve (AUC) value has an explanatory value of 0,901. Significant shifts up to 100 km change in centroids and 550 km change in peripheral regions are expected to happen mainly in northern and northeastern areas. At the same time, it loses some regions located in the south and western parts of Turkey. Nevertheless, such shifts also depend on many other ecological factors besides climate. Therefore, monitoring and conservation of the species are recommended to be put into practice. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]