Solar photovoltaic power forecasting system with online manner based on adaptive mode decomposition and multi-objective optimization.

Constructing an accurate and reliable solar photovoltaic (PV) power forecasting system is crucial for smart grid management and dispatch. However, due to the intermittent, non-stationary and random nature of solar energy, current methods cannot effectively capture the dynamic change patterns of PV data, resulting in a forecasting accuracy that cannot satisfy the requirement for stable operation of smart grids. To address this issue, in this paper, a new solar PV power forecasting system is proposed based on a new adaptive mode decomposition method that combines machine learning models. First an adaptive mode decomposition method is proposed for adaptively eliminating high-frequency information of PV data, mitigating the impact of high noise on the forecasting performance. Then the powerful mapping ability of machine learning model is utilized to construct a solar PV power generation combination forecasting system. The system adopts a multi-objective optimization strategy to determine the optimal weights of the combination model, which reduces the volatility of the forecasting results and enhances the stability of the forecasting system. Experimental results demonstrate that the proposed system achieves the best overall performance with online manner on 10 state-of-the-art baselines. Furthermore, the evaluation analysis by Diebold–Mariano test, improvement ratio and sensitivity analysis further show that the stability and accuracy of the proposed system outperforms the comparative baselines. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]