1990--2019年中国归因于饮酒的结直肠癌 疾病负担变化及未来趋势预测.

Objective To analyze the trend of disease burden of colorectal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption in China from 1990 to 2019 and provide evidence for the colorectal cancer prevention and control in China. Methods Data on colorectal cancer mortality and disability-adjusted life years (DALYs) rates attributable to alcohol from 1990 to 2019 were extracted from the GBD 2019 database. The age-period-cohort (APC) model was used to assess the effects of age, period, and cohort, and the ARIMA model was used to predict the disease burden of colorectal cancer attributable to alcohol in the next 10 years. Results From 1990 to 2019, the number of deaths, crude mortality rate, and crude DALY rate of colorectal cancer attributable to alcohol in China increased from 56 000, 0.47/100 000, and 1433/100 000 in 1990 to 245 000, 1.72/100 000, and 46.57/100 000 in 2019. The age -standardized mortality rate and age -standardized DALY rate increased from 0,66/100 000 and 17.79/100 000 in 1990 to 1.24/100 000 and 32.51/100 000 in 2019, with an average annual increase of 2,16 (1.94-3.89, £=19.95) and 2.07 (L85-230, £=18.22). The death risk of colorectal cancer attributable to alcohol in China reached its peak at 16,61/100 000 (95%CI: 15.98%-17.26%) in the 5-80 years old group from 1990 to 2019, The period effect showed that the death risk RR reached its highest at 142 (95%CI: 138%-1.46%) between 2012 and 2017. The cohort effect showed that the death risk RR increased from 0.30 (95%CI: 0.27%-0.33%) in 1910 to 2.71 (95%CI: 2.18%-3.36%) in 1990. The prediction model showed that the age -standardized mortality rate and DALY rate of colorectal cancer attributable to alcohol in China would continue to rise from 2020 to 2030, Conclusion The burden of colorectal cancer attributed to alcohol consumption among the Chinese population has been on the rise from 1990 to 2019, with significant gender and age differences. Middle aged and elderly men are the main population increasing the disease burden, and health education for both men and middle-aged and elderly people should be strengthened to reduce the burden of colorectal cancer. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]