SYSTEM DYNAMICS AND VIABILITY THEORY FOR SUSTAINABILITY ASSESSMENT, APPLICATION FOR BIOETHANOL PRODUCTION IN COLOMBIA.

Contextualization: This paper has a framework for prospective assessment of sustainability in bioethanol in a dynamical way, this is important as a tool for policymakers in Colombia. Knowledge gap: No dynamic models have been developed with the formulation of viable or desired scenarios. The evaluation of environmental aspects and sustainability is always carried out with past information and historical data, it is rarely carried out with prospective models and no restrictions or unwanted scenarios are linked. A general bioethanol supply chain must be modeled, connecting variables that represent sustainability indicators. The modeled indicators were proposed by the Global Bioenergy Partnership (GBEP). Purpose: A model is built to evaluate sustainability indicators and know if the trend behavior of the system evolves through the desired regions that would correspond to the sustainability objectives and goals of the sector. Methodology: A model is developed with System Dynamics and to integrate the modeling with the evaluation of sustainability, the concept of constraints, developed in the Viability Theory, is used; Here, the desired regions of the system state are suggested and defined as desired, alert, and undesired scenarios. Results and conclusions: The model have been tested with the information of a bioethanol production chain from sugarcane in Colombia with an installed capacity of 450 million liters per year, using two sustainability indicators that were designed and simulated using the constraint regions. These indicators are water consumption and jobs in bioethanol production. The results show important findings for modeling, monitoring, and assessing sustainability in the biofuels sector, using indicators and providing a method of implementing the best practices for sustainability using defined desired regions of the systems. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]