Microclimatic Growth Rates of Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans under Current and Future Climates: A Very High Spatial Resolution SDM for Bsal and Salamandra salamandra (Linnaeus, 1758) within Forest Habitats of the European Hotspot Area.

Chytridiomycosis is one of the greatest threats to the diversity of amphibians worldwide. Caused by the chytrid fungus Batrachochytrium salamandrivorans (Bsal), it plays a decisive role in species declines. Bsal is particularly harmful to the European fire salamander (Salamandra salamandra), causing ulcerations, anorexia and ataxia, which ultimately lead to death. While most studies have focused on the geographic expansion of the pathogen, there is little high-resolution information available. Therefore, we chose a three-step approach in this study: We (I) used a mechanistic distribution model to project the microclimatic growth rate of Bsal within its invasive range on a spatially very high resolution (25 m). We (II) used a correlative distribution model to predict the potential distribution of S. salamandra and (III) applied n-dimensional hypervolumes to quantify the realized microclimatic niches of both species and examine their overlaps. We estimated future trends based on comparisons among three climate scenarios, the current microclimatic conditions and a +2 °C and +4 °C global mean temperature scenario. We demonstrated that Bsal finds suitable growth conditions everywhere within our study area, thus putting S. salamandra at high risk. However, climate change could lead to less suitable thermal conditions for Bsal, possibly providing a loophole for S. salamandra. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]