The prediction model for coffee market price using Adam-Bashforth predictor-corrector method and Heun's method.

The variability of the events around us will always make price fluctuation studies in the domain of mathematics relevant because of our continuous intention to improve current predictive models. Prediction is an intriguing area of research. The ability of an organisation or individual to make good investment decisions, plan, and build effective strategies for their current or future endeavours revolves around price prediction. This study focuses on the coffee market price and the use of some numerical techniques to forecast the coffee price using Evan's Price Adjustment Model (EPAM), which lionizes demand and supply as the major factors influencing commodity prices. Several techniques have been deployed to predict the price of commodities, ranging from those that work effectively in the short term to those that work efficiently over a very long period of time. In this research, the fourth-order Adam-Bashforth Predictor Corrector Method (AB-PC4) and Heun's method are used to solve the initial value problem for the coffee market price. The EPA model is a first-order ordinary differential equation, which guarantees the applicability of numerical methods. The model relies on data about the actual price of coffee, supplies, and demands of coffee in the market for 2017–2021, which were obtained from a report. Previous research regarding the coffee market price has primarily relied on the ARIMA model, which is good at making short-term predictions. The selection of EPAM as our model seems beneficial to us as we investigate how good the model is. From our analysis and the results obtained, this research work can be considered mission accomplished because the models were able to capture the trend in the datasets used, We also discovered that AB-PC4 proved to be better in terms of accuracy and computational time compared with Heun's method for forecasting the coffee price. We believe this study will serve as an intelligent document for investors and all shareholders in the coffee business in terms of better decision-making and profit optimization. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]