Predicting incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis through quantitative meniscal lesion parameters: data from the osteoarthritis initiative.

Background: This study investigates the potential of novel meniscal parameters as predictive factors for incident radiographic knee osteoarthritis (ROA) over a span of four years, as part of the Osteoarthritis Initiative (OAI) study. Objectives: Quantitative measurements of meniscal parameters alteration could serve as predictors of OA's occurrence and progression. Methods and materials: A nested matched case-control study design was used to select participants from OAI study. Case knees (n = 178) were defined as those with incident ROA (Kellgren Lawrence Grade (KLG) 0 or 1 at baseline (BL), evolving into KLG 2 or above by year 4). Control knees were matched one-to-one by sex, age and radiographic status with case knees. The mean distance from medial-to-lateral meniscal lesions [Mean(MLD)], mean value of tibial plateau width [Mean(TPW)] and the mean of the relative percentage of the medial-to-lateral meniscal lesions distance [Mean(RMLD)] were evaluated through coronal T2-weighted turbo spin echo (TSE) MRI at P-0 (visit when incident ROA was found on radiograph), P-1(one year prior to P-0) and baseline, respectively. Using the imaging data of one patient, the mechanism was investigated by finite element analysis. Results: Participants were on average 60.22 years old, predominantly female (66.7%) and overweight (mean BMI: 28.15). Mean(MLD) and Mean(RMLD) were significantly greater for incident knees compared to no incident knees at baseline, P-1 and P-0. [Mean(MLD), Mean(RMLD); (42.56–49.73) mean ± (7.70–9.52) mm SD vs. (38.14–40.78) mean ± (5.51–7.05)mm SD; (58.61–68.95) mean ± (8.52–11.40) mm SD vs. (52.52–56.35) mean ± (6.53–7.85)mm SD, respectively]. Baseline Mean(MLD) and Mean(RMLD), [Adjusted OR, 95%CI: 1.11(1.07 to 1.16) and 1.13(1.09 to 1.17), respectively], were associated with incident ROA during 4 years, However, Mean(TPW) [Adjusted OR, 95%CI: 0.98(0.94 to 1.02)] was not associated with incident ROA during 4 years. While Mean(TPW) at P-1 and P-0 was not associated with the risk of incident ROA, Mean(MLD) and Mean(RMLD) at P-1 and P-0 were significantly positively associated with the risk of incident ROA. Conclusions: The meniscal parameters alteration could be an important imaging biomarker to predict the occurrence of ROA. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]