Stress Field Dynamics and Fault Slip Potential in the Paradox Basin.

The Paradox Basin, straddling Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico is characterized by an intricate amalgamation of evaporites and clastic layers and is dominated by prominent salt walls and related subsurface structures. Our research offers a new examination of the stress distribution across the basin, deriving from continuous and discrete stress measurements conducted in boreholes in the region and focal mechanism analysis, emphasizing variations over salt structures. Integrating Coulomb failure criteria with probabilistic methods, we assess potential fault movements resulting from fluid pressure alterations. Our approach provides a comprehensive understanding of the Paradox Basin's state of stress, showing a continuous change of the maximum horizontal stress orientation from N‐S at the Wasatch Fault Zone to WNW‐ESE in the northern part of the Paradox Basin and to WSW‐ENE in the southern part of the basin. Further East, into the Colorado Plateau and the Uncompahgre Uplift, the SHmax orientation becomes E‐W. Decoding stress orientation dynamics has enabled critical insights into fault slip potential, especially in the basin's northern region. The salt wall faults are less likely to slip, and the Paradox Formation's evaporite and clastic rock sequence can serve as a potential low seismic risk target for carbon storage and hydrocarbon extraction. Plain Language Summary: We have examined the dynamics of the stress field within the Paradox Basin, spanning parts of Utah, Colorado, Arizona, and New Mexico. The basin is noted for its complex evaporite and clastic rock sequence. It is significant for its subsurface storage and enhanced oil and gas production potential. Through this research, we aim to understand the variations in stress distributions across the basin and assess the potential for fault movements caused by changes in fluid pressure, which is important for the sustainable development and management of subsurface resources. Our study incorporates data from seismic activity and direct stress measurements from boreholes to offer a nuanced understanding of the basin's geomechanical behavior. The outcomes of this research have significant implications for both the safe underground storage and the efficient extraction of hydrocarbons.​ Key Points: Paradox Basin: Lowering the seismic risk for geo‐energy applicationPost‐drilling creep and stress distribution analysis across salt structuresCoulomb failure criteria integrated with probabilistic methods to evaluate the potential for fault slip [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]