How can green hydrogen from North Africa support EU decarbonization? Scenario analyses on competitive pathways for trade.

The carbon-neutrality target set by the European Union for 2050 drives the increasing relevance of green hydrogen as key player in the energy transition. This work uses the JRC-EU-TIMES energy system model to assess opportunities and challenges for green hydrogen trade from North Africa to Europe, analysing to what extent it can support its decarbonization. An important novelty is addressing uncertainty regarding hydrogen economy development. Alternative scenarios are built considering volumes available for import, production costs and transport options, affecting hydrogen cost-effectiveness. Both pipelines and ships are modelled assuming favourable market conditions and pessimistic ones. From 2040 on, all available North African hydrogen is imported regardless of its costs. In Europe this imported hydrogen is mainly converted into synfuels and heat. The study aims to support policymakers to implement effective strategies, focusing on the crucial role of green hydrogen in the decarbonization process, if new competitive cooperations are developed. • The role of green hydrogen in long-term decarbonization is affected by uncertainty. • The JRC-EU-TIMES model is exploited to study alternative pathways for trade. • Different importable volumes, production costs and transport options are modelled. • From 2040 on, EU + import all the North African hydrogen, regardless of its cost. • EU + countries are differently sensitive to uncertainty factors on hydrogen import. [ABSTRACT FROM AUTHOR]